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The Welsh Conservatives have confirmed Gareth Potter as their candidate for next month’s Senedd by-election in Caerphilly.

While Reform UK and Plaid Cymru are talking up their chances of an upset against Labour, the Conservatives are more realistic. The party has rarely finished higher than third – often behind Plaid Cymru – in Senedd and UK Parliament elections.

In Senedd contests, their best showing came in 2021 when Steven Mayfield polled 17.3% coming third, while in Westminster elections, their best vote share was 42.8% in 1922 – albeit in a two-horse race.

While perhaps not enjoying the resources of Plaid, Reform, and Labour, Mr Potter seems determined to speak to as many people as he can on the doorstep and is putting a local emphasis on his campaign.

“I’m not going to be the person just going for photo ops here, there and everywhere,” he told Caerphilly Observer. “We’re going to be knocking on doors.”

From Pontypool to Ebbw Vale

Mr Potter, 40, grew up on a council estate in Trevethin, Pontypool, and hasn’t forgotten his roots.

He said: “I would never say that it was a rough upbringing, but we didn’t have the privileges, if you know what I mean.

“My mum worked two, three jobs, after my dad unfortunately passed away. So, life wasn’t easy, but we got on with it.

“I went to school at West Monmouth Comprehensive School, a two-mile walk each way, and we didn’t have the money to pay for the bus.”

He left university early to care for his mother when she became ill, then found work in retail. Starting at Matalan, he moved into project management, travelling across the UK before settling in the North West and later Bristol.

It was there he met his wife. The couple now have two children and, as he puts it with a smile, “three cats unfortunately – I’m not a massive cat fan, but my wife is.”

Their move to Ebbw Vale two years ago was prompted by their daughter’s additional learning needs. “We wanted to find a school that would really suit her,” he said.

Politics and career

Mr Potter first became interested in politics as a teenager during the 1997 Labour landslide, but it was during the Cameron years that he became active. “I just wanted to see if I could make a difference locally,” he said.

He began volunteering for the Conservatives in Bristol, later becoming a campaign manager covering six constituencies. He worked on Jack Lopresti’s successful general election campaign in Filton and Bradley Stoke and has stood for election himself in Bristol. For the past four years he has been employed by the party full-time.

Asked why he chose the Conservatives, he said: “I’ve always worked hard. I’ve never expected any handouts. I pay my taxes, I do my bit. For me it’s about putting the effort in and you get rewarded. That’s where the Conservative Party sat with me.”

Standing in Caerphilly

When the by-election was called following the death of Labour’s Hefin David, candidates were asked if they wanted to put their names forward. Already on the longlist for the new Blaenau Gwent and Caerffili Rhymni seat ahead of the 2026 Senedd election, Mr Potter was one of three considered and was ultimately selected.

Local issues

Mr Potter is clear about what he sees as the key issues in Caerphilly: council service cuts, housing, NHS waiting lists and the economy.

“The council decided to cut services – leisure centres, libraries – while council tax has gone up. I’ve never agreed with that,” he said. On housing, he added: “I’m not against new homes, but I believe in using brownfield and former industrial sites first. Too often the greenbelt is seen as the easier option.”

On health, he points to palliative care: “Labour’s own report said it needed equal funding. We’ve said we would support that and invest an extra £10m. More widely, waiting lists are the biggest single issue troubling Wales.”

He has also pledged to oppose Labour’s proposed tourism tax. “It’s damaging to our local economy. Airbnbs and hotels are already being charged through the roof, and it will deter visitors. I would campaign to scrap it.”

Campaign style and team

While not having the resources of his opponents, Mr Potter is determined to run an active campaign.

He said: “Over the weekend I was out in Bargoed knocking doors. That’s all I want to be doing – talking about local issues with local residents.”

The campaign currently has a core team of 15 to 20 activists, but Potter says his network from working in the party will bring in supporters from across Wales and the South West. “We’re building quickly. But I’ll still be the candidate that knocks the majority of the doors. I want to speak to people directly.”

Unlike Reform and Plaid, the Conservatives will not be opening a campaign shop. “We’ve already got a Conservative club that’s been here for years. As far as I’m concerned, that’s our base.”

On Reform, Plaid Cymru, and Labour

Potter dismisses Reform UK as a one-issue party. “They’ve got one policy and it’s immigration. I’d like to know where their policies are for Wales. We’ve heard nothing on housing, nothing on services. Even on 20mph – that was a Conservative policy first.”

He is also critical of Laura Anne Jones’ recent defection from the Conservatives to Reform. “It’s just disappointing. Whatever the reasons, she felt she wasn’t safe under the new incumbency rules. But overall, I’m disappointed.”

As for Labour’s candidate Richard Tunnicliffe, and Plaid’s Lindsay Whittle, Potter knows he faces strong competition. “It is a challenge, don’t get me wrong,” he said. “But I’ve got the support of the Caerphilly Conservative Association, who are well-known locally. And I won’t be disappearing after this election, regardless of the result. I want to strengthen the Conservative Association here ahead of 2026.”

Looking ahead

Potter’s message is one of graft, realism and persistence. “All I want to be doing is just knocking on doors, talking to local residents. Whatever happens on October 23, I’ll still be here.”

As part of our by-election coverage, Caerphilly Observer has already profiled Labour’s Richard Tunnicliffe, Plaid Cymru’s Lindsay Whittle, and Reform’s Llŷr Powell.

Our profiles of the Liberal Democrats’ Steve Aichler and The Green Party’s Gareth Hughes will also be published in due course. Antony Cook is also standing for Gwlad.

Over the coming weeks in the lead-up to polling day on October 23, we’ll be taking a closer look at the policies of each party and why this election matters.