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Polls are closed and the votes are being now counted – meaning we’re just hours away from finding out who the 96 new Senedd Members will be.

But what happens if no party wins enough seats to secure a majority?

To win a majority under the new, more proportional, electoral system a party will need to win 49 seats – something no party has been projected to achieve, according to polls in the run up to this election.

Instead, it is likely that the 2026 election will result in a hung parliament – with parties forced to turn to coalition agreements to secure a majority.

Or, the largest party may choose to govern in a minority government – an option Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorweth has already expressed he would be open to.

Hung Parliament

A hung parliament is a situation where no single political party manages to secure a majority of the seats in parliament.

Any government formed after a hung parliament therefore must be either a coalition or a minority government.

If opinion polls are to be believed it is likely that no party will secure the 49 seats necessary to form a majority government.

The final YouGov MRP of the 2026 election predicted both frontrunners – Plaid Cymru and Reform UK – falling short of an overall majority with 43 and 34 seats respectively.

So, what are the options if no party secures a majority today?

Coalitions

If the largest party does not secure a majority of seats it can attempt to maintain power by creating an alliance with a smaller party through a power-sharing agreement or coalition.

Coalitions are not an unfamiliar sight within the Senedd, with arguably the most prominent being the 2007-2011 ‘One Wales’ coalition agreement between Plaid Cymru and Welsh Labour.

While it has never happened in the Welsh Parliament it is also possible for the lower placed parties to form a coalition together if that allows them to form a majority.

Discussions of coalitions had already begun prior to the election, with party leaders expressing who they would, and perhaps more importantly would not, be willing to work with.

Anthony Slaughter, leader of the Wales Green Party, announced just days before the election that he would be willing to enter a coalition government to prevent Reform UK taking power.

The Welsh Conservatives are the only party to not rule out working with Reform UK.

In contrast, Welsh Labour, the Welsh Liberal Democrats, the Wales Green Party, and the Welsh Conservatives have all indicated that they would be open to working with Plaid Cymru post-election.

Minority governments

However, a coalition is not the only option following a hung parliament, the largest party could also choose to form a minority government.

A minority government is a government formed by a political party that does not have an overall majority but chooses to govern alone as opposed to forming a coalition with another party.

Minority governments must negotiate and win the support of Senedd Members from other parties to pass legislation.

Similarly to coalitions, minority governments are not uncommon within Welsh politics, with the first-ever Welsh Assembly being led by a minority Welsh Labour government.

In early 2026, Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth expressed his desire to form a minority government if Plaid won the election but did not secure a majority of seats.

Referencing the then latest opinion polls, the Plaid Cymru leader told the Gwleidydda podcast on BBC Radio Cymru that it was his party’s wish to form a minority government of solely Plaid ministers.

Another election?

While an unlikely outcome if no party secures an outright majority and no agreements can be made between the parties, another election could be on the cards.

From the date of the election, the Senedd has just 28 days to nominate an MS as First Minister – meaning for 2026 a new First Minister must be chosen by June 3.

If a First Minister has not been appointed by this date, the Senedd will be dissolved and another election will be held.