Wales is a nation divided and undecided when it comes to whether the United Kingdom should remain in the European Union.
Voters will go to the ballot box on June 23, but a poll by YouGov, for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University, has indicated a close race in Wales between the Remain and Leave campaigns.
Each side scored 41% with the remaining 18% undecided.
Professor Roger Scully, from Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre, said: “With little more than two weeks to go, this new poll suggests that things could not be closer in Wales.
“Despite the vast majority of the political establishment in Wales supporting a Remain vote, it is now looking very possible that Leave could carry the day here, with many Labour and Plaid Cymru supporters apparently intending to defy the leaders of their parties and vote for Leave.”
The YouGov survey was carried out online between May 30 and June 2 with a sample of 1,017 Welsh adults.
A Wales Stronger In Europe spokesperson said: “This poll just confirms what we’ve always known – that the referendum is close, and every vote will count.
“With so many people still undecided, we will continue making the case for a Wales that is stronger, safer and better off in Europe.
“But the most important number is 245 million – that is the amount in pounds Wales gets back from the EU every year above and beyond what we contribute.
“That delivers opportunities and growth and that should be the main consideration for anyone who has yet to make up their mind.”
Laura Ann Jones, a former Conservative AM for South Wales East and spokeswoman for Vote Leave Cymru, said: “This poll suggests that the campaigns are now neck and neck, with voters increasingly rejecting the negativity of ‘Project Fear’ and embracing a positive future for Wales and the UK outside of the EU.
“While the only poll that matters is the one that takes place on June 23 this is a once-in-a-generation chance to put power back in the hands of local communities and into the hands of politicians that we choose and who we can throw out if we want change.
“Above all it’s an opportunity to take back control from the unelected and unaccountable EU and to deliver a shot in the arm for British democracy.”
Meanwhile, Newbridge-raised billionaire Sir Terry Matthews has gone on record as saying that leaving the EU would be an “absolute disaster”.
Writing for the Western Mail, the telecoms tycoon said: “There are a lot of populist arguments out there about how much money the UK pays into the EU.
“My conclusion is the benefits greatly outweigh the costs of membership.
“My argument is based on economics and not the politics. Put simply, I don’t think we can afford to take the chance that leaving the EU will not damage the UK economy – perhaps beyond repair.”
The Chair of Caerphilly Business Forum, Denise Lovering, has called for more facts and figures for voters to make an informed decision.
Mrs Lovering, who is the Commercial Director of Bedwas-based Glenside Commercials, said: “Business deals in facts and so far it appears to me they have been pretty thin on the ground.
“[The two campaigns] should credit the British people with some intelligence, stop the scaremongering and set out the facts as they know them for us to make an informed decision.”
I predict that WALES will vote OUT by a huge margine.
The Welsh people have up to know refused to listening to party leaders and are quite prepared to vote `out` regardless
Isn’t there an argument that says that Wales is being propped up by European funding and if this were to end Wales would suffer greatly. Over £4bn has been given to Wales since 2000, yes it’s only UK money coming back but would Westminster be as generous as Brussels has been over the past 16 years. I am still undecided though beginning to lean more to voting out as immigration is a big concern.
My concerns relate almost entirely to the incontrolled immigration aspect of in or out. The current levels make our social infrustructures unsustainable, and near to collapse, certainly reasonably `British` identity of civil behaviour and good order there is likely to be a situation created under which that requirment causes conflict amongst immigrants who may have their own identity aganda.
Nobody, at all, has told me how an uncontrolled immigration level of 330,000 is a good thing for this country, what is positive about that? and of course if we remain, we will continue to have NO CONTROL on immigration from the EU. with the enviable prospect of a certain increase in the 330,000 figure year on year to come.
No amount of EU rebated backhanded cashbacks or sweetheart deals to Wales or other regions of the UK will compensate for the damage uncontrolled immergration will heap on communities, and infrustructure not designed to keep up with such increases in populations.
Germany and the rest WILL continue to buy our exports, in fact, a huge team of Trade and Industry civil servants and experts from all other effected UK government departments are currently working on preserving trading links at high levels with all EU Countries in the event of a potential OUT vote. The financial markets also will work to maintain thier role as brokers in the EU. The IN campaign is built on myths and conjecture.
With countries like Serbia, Montenegro, Kosovo, Albania, Macadonia and Turkey wanting to join the EU it will only increase immigration. We need a better system and a more rigorous immigration policy otherwise the UK will be swamped, NHS, education and housing will not be able to cope. It isn’t being racist it’s simply common sense, if a person can’t contribute to UK then they should not be let it,
Immigration is a big point but so is the legal system. Can Britain really be called sovereign when even our Supreme Court can be overruled by a foreign court of the EU whose judges making the decision who have never stepped foot in Britain?
You are right, law made by unelected commissioners has supremacy over law made by elected British people. This will cease only when we leave the EU club.
To me this is the ‘big issue’, Britain has, painfully, evolved a democratic system over 700 years. This is not the case with our near neigbours who within living memory were dictatorships. They are, Germany, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece, etc. We do not need lessons from these countries on how democracy works – quite the reverse- but they are determined to lock us into the EU regime where law is decided by commissioners that cannot be removed.
I hope so!
I just hope so too Cllr Williams. I also hope that the English and Scots see sense as well and vote this country out of this farce. This referendum is not about the single market, its about the very sovereignty of the UK itself. In my view there are two dominant powers in the EU, Germany and France. Look back at the history books and this will show what these countries think of the UK. People who believe that the UK is a key player in the EU are very very much mistaken. I just hope that people wake up, and vote LEAVE.
An interesting point made by you, a lot of people don’t know anything of history beyond the inventions of Hollywood. In the early 19th century France sought to dominate a Europe of regions ruled from Paris. We British defeated the French army and navy but recognised that Prussia, which went on to dominate the new German nation, was the new danger.
For nearly the next 200 years British foreign policy was geared to prevent Germany from dominating Europe. This, very necessary, policy was gradually discarded in the 1960’s. Today our laws are made by people who are not born in Britain and are not removable via the ballot.
You are absolutely right, whether we are better or worse off financially, whether our holidays are affected and all the other trivial matters that are endlessly discussed in the news media matter far less than our democracy. This is the key point for me personally, I would prefer a democratically elected government that may be voted out of office by British people rather than the EU model where law and policy is created by appointed commissioners who live and work abroad.
My advice, as always, is “don’t believe opinion polls” they get it wrong more often than they get it right. Look across the Atlantic at our cousins in the USA. Did the polls there predict Trump would be the Republican candidate? If so I did not see any that did. Look at our general election last year, we were told that it would be tight and there was much speculation as to what form a coalition would take. In actual fact the Tories won comfortably.
Polls are just a bit of fun, their data set is always too small to have any chance of accuracy. Plus people often supply false answers to nosy questioners. This is why our national census solemnly records that ‘Jedi Knights’ are a major British religion.
Don’t listen to the politicians who are relying on fear, scarmongering and lies, listen to the experts and a vast majority are sayinying to stay in. Certainly Wales will be better in than out that’s for sure. No one has a clue what the plans are if we pull out and God help us if we do …
Your first line was correct, ‘fear, scaremongering and lies’ are the stock in trade of the politicians trying to persuade us to stay in the EU. I have a sneaky feeling that Welsh people, who love democracy and hate tyranny, will vote to get out of the EU. Certainly it seems most Caerffili people want out, this includes people who normally vote Plaid and Labour. I have spoken with many of them.
The danger is that in the event of a leave vote nationally the vested interests of big business and the political establishment will attempt to defy the will of the people.
WALES will be better governed by the british mainstream political parties after an OUT vote. It would however have a serious effect on the percieved bit of Gravitas which The Nationalist, both Scottish and Welsh retain, much less in Wales of course. They are hypocritically promoting the IN campaign in order to reinforce EU governance over Wales as a region of England, whilst crowing about devolution of governance FROM England, how on earth do they square the circle? any answers from The Welsh Nationalist supporters of the REMAIN IN campaign?.
Does you `advice` to OUT supporters NOT TO LISTEN TO POLITICIANS WHO RELY ON, FEAR, SCARMONGERING AND LIES, extend to NOT listening to rubbish spouted by this stupid REMAIN TORY MEP SWINBURNE ????, who said
“‘No market for Welsh lamb after Brexit’
Do you agree with this statement uttered by one of your REMAIN Champions? I am sure you are NOT as stupid as her?
Does you `advice` to OUT supporters NOT TO LISTEN TO POLITICIANS WHO RELY ON, FEAR, SCARMONGERING AND LIES, extend to NOT listening to rubbish spouted by this stupid REMAIN TORY MEP SWINBURNE ????, who said
‘No market for Welsh lamb after Brexit’
Do you agree with this statement uttered by one of your REMAIN Champions? or are you finding it a difficult question to answer
It appears Wales is not as deluded as I thought. It will be nice to see a vote for Brexit win in Wales.
It will be
Lets hope not for the sake of future generations ….
No it will not, future generations deserve better …
Yeah, these future generations, hey? These future generations deserve a British Supreme Court that cannot be overruled by a European court with judges who have never been to Britain.
Future generations need to be able to celebrate their A-level results without being extradited to Greece to face murder charges. After 10 months in a Greek jail it was determined the prosecution never had evidence so the 18 year old British boy was released. By the time he finally returned home his friends had already graduated. Guess what? If the European Arrest Warrant did not exist and an extradition agreement said evidence had to be presented in a British court before someone could be extradited, that boy would not have had his life ruined and friends lost by facing false charges. Google ‘Andrew Symeou,’
Future generations deserve to become fisherman and not have their stocks taken by EU fisherman fishing in British waters using EU permits. When British waters are the best waters in Europe, all EU fisherman are heading to British waters.
Future generations deserve to have an equal say in making laws. Did you know Malta has 14 times more MEPs on a proportional basis and 14 times more votes at the EU Commission on a proportional basis?
These future generations deserve industry in Britain. Did you know British military vehicles are being made in Spain using Swedish steel because EU procurement rules mean the British government could not specify for them to be made in Britain using British steel?
Shall I continue?
So what happens if people listen to all the scarmongering, lies and fear and vote OUT?
We once again become free, we train our own workforce instead of allowing big business and the NHS to employ people from abroad, we cease to need to build all over our farmland to provide housing for 300,000 immigrants per year, house prices fall which gives the young a chance to buy, we retain control of our armed forces, we regain our seat on the World Trade Organisation which is currently occupied by appointed EU stooge, our fishing grounds become available for British fishing fleets instead of foreign ones, we make our own laws once more, we elect the people who govern us instead of being governed by appointed commissioners who don’t live in these islands, I could go on and on.
The scaremongering and lies comes from individuals in the remain camp. I offered to discuss the issues with them last Saturday in our town, They refused and rapidly fled. Voting ‘leave’ is a vote for belief in our own ability to trade with the world instead of a ramshackle customes union. The EU will implode in a few years, believe me we are better outside as an observer rather then being emboiled in the collapse of this out dated, undemocratic customs union.
Tory MEP Swinburne says: ‘No market for Welsh lamb after Brexit’
What a plank!. is this an example of the ` scarmongering, lies and fear ` you are taking about Lisa? or is this responsible argument from your side?
Inane rubbish from an inane bunch of cretins who think everyone in the country should follow them like sheep, O` dear, see what I did there? and I am voting out if there is any doubt.
Wales will be better out of the EU than in.
I find it ironic that Welsh Nationalists can support the notion of being governed from Brussels, whilst promoting the notion that they and the Scottish nationalists want independence from London, how does that work exactly?.
The remain in people are quite content to take a subservient role to Germany, France and the rest by being governed by an unelected faceless group of dangerous individuals, from abroad. Yet when it come to domestic politics, The Welsh Nationalist in particular seek to devolve governance FROM London TO Wales, what a real bunch of hypocrits and we can see all see now the weakness in their role in Welsh, British, and international politics, they are a bunch of sycophants only concerned with the progression of individuals within that grouping of Nationalists, to then say, and urge us to vote, in support of INTERNATIONAL Governence is incomprehesible and hypocritical. and really does weaken thier Nationalist role in any sort of political debate.
For those who need any more proof of the REMAIN Campaign arguments being scarmongering, fear tactics, and lies, now need no further proof of their panic and desperation, because today CAMERON, the REMAIN CAMPAIGN LEADER, has declared that an OUT vote means and end to free TV licences for over 80`s and the withdrawal of bus passes for the elderly and disabled. What a Real Cretin this man and his remain campaigners are, SCARMONGERING? LIES, AND SPREADING FEAR, CAN NOW BE ADDED TO WITH `THREATS` to our elderly, infirm, blind and otherwise disabled family members, friends and neighbours.
Can ANYONE believe this latest interjection from a panic driven campaign leader,? I predict it will have the oppisite effect of convincing people to vote remain, and if we vote to leave, Bring it on and lets see `em try.
I take great joy in all the rubbish spouted by the ‘Remain’ camp, a voter told me yesterday that he had decided to vote leave as the only message from the other side was scare tactics and personal insults.
If a British government made the cuts Cameron is threatening they would find themselves voted out of office in short order. This is the crux of the issue, we can change our government, we can’t change the EU commissioners.
It would seem that the local MP called on CCBC to move on the Leave campaign on on Saturday. When that failed the police were called, mainly becaue the leave Stall was very busy but the remain stall was quiet. Which is were Mr David was trying to get his word across. Its getting nasty by the Remain campaign.
Interesting that the Labour Police and Crime Commissioner was also out supporting the Remain campaign. Anything to do with him, perhaps?