New constituency-by-constituency modelling suggests that Caerphilly is one of 14 Welsh Parliamentary areas that have swung in favour of the United Kingdom remaining in the European Union.
The analysis, carried out by data scientists Focaldata, appears to show a swing of 7% from Leave to Remain in Caerphilly, and a swing of 10% from Leave to Remain in Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney.
On June 23, 2016, 53,295 people in Caerphilly voted in favour of Leave. In Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney, 16,291 voted in favour of Leave. In Wales, 52.5% of voters opted to leave the European Union in the 2016 referendum, with 51.9% backing Leave across the whole of the UK.
This new modelling suggests that both Wales and the UK now favour remaining, with 53% in support of Remain and Leave on 47%.
The Focaldata analysis used two YouGov polls that surveyed 15,000 people across the UK. It was carried out for campaign groups Best for Britain and Hope Not Hate and published in the national Observer newspaper on Sunday, August 12.
Dawn Bowden, Assembly Member for Methyr Tydfil and Rhymney, said: “It is important that people make known their views regarding Brexit given the importance of this issue to our local economy.
“Just this week, I asked people who have changed their minds to get in touch with my constituency office as I want to understand why opinions may be changing.
“Throughout his whole process, my overriding concern has been to protect jobs in Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney. That is why I recently called for a pause in the Brexit negotiations so that we have time to consider what is right for our local communities.”
Mark Reckless, Assembly Member for South Wales East, criticised the results of the poll, and told Caerphilly Observer: “There has not been a move back to remain outside of the pages of [the national newspaper] the Observer.
“I give no credence to one poll that speaks to just a dozen or so people in a constituency. I recall that the polls before the referendum also showed remain winning, so there has been no change.
“People who voted Leave still believe in it and the government should just get on with it.”
Prime Minister Theresa May triggered Article 50 on Wednesday, April 29, 2017, which began the process of the UK leaving the European Union. Since then, Brexit negotiations have suffered a number of setbacks, with several UK Cabinet resignations and a failure to reach a consensus on a final withdrawal deal being met with widespread dissatisfaction.
The UK Government’s deadline for finalising a deal with the EU is Friday, April 29, 2019. Despite the Welsh Government reaching a deal with the UK Government over powers devolved to the National Assembly for Wales in May, there are mounting concerns that continued uncertainty is limiting local authorities’ ability to plan for the UK’s withdrawal.
Recently, the Welsh Local Government Association (WLGA), which represents the interests of local authorities in Wales, raised concerns over the “confused” messages received from the UK Government.
A spokesman for the WLGA said: “While Welsh councils have taken the initiative to undertake their own analyses of and planning for possible Brexit scenarios, the national messages from central government are confused.
“The bottom line is that there is a ‘making this up as we go along’ quality to the deliberations at Westminster.
“The recent stress on preparing for no deal is a case in point.
“The WLGA view is that any responsible government would seek to avoid this disastrous outcome at all costs.
“Because of this uncertainty, it is very difficult for our councils to commit resources until there is a clearer idea of what is needed.”
Cllr Dave Poole, leader of Caerphilly County Borough Council, said: “The impact of Brexit remains uncertain, particularly for an area which has received European funding for key initiatives over a number of years.
“While I welcome the Wales Audit Office advice on ‘Managing the impact of Brexit on EU Structural Funds’ it is important that the UK Government gives clarity to local authorities as soon as possible.
“Without this clarity and detailed knowledge of what Brexit entails, it is not possible for any council to prepare a realistic and detailed plan. Caerphilly County Borough Council will continue to work with the WLGA and Welsh Government to mitigate the impact on our residents.”
Well this conflict’s widely from the Survey i carried out in the Caerphilly Borough area.
Which show’s an ingress in the number determined to leave, with a large proportion of them citing the rising unrest in a number of other E-U Countries, Against the Policies & Failings OF the E-U Government, On what the Majority feel’s is the un-addressed Problem of Immigration, When the UK Finally leave’s,
Other E-U Members State’s will Follow “OUR LEAD”.
To Clarify the Funding we receive from the E-U. It’s Money the British tax payer has had to pay into the E-U Central Fund (No say in it), “MINE AND YOUR MONEY”. Statement’s implying Wales rely on Hand-out’s to keep it’s infrastructure & initiatives in place does Wales harm on the International Stage. We are a Proud Nation. And if Governed Correctly, Shouldn’t need funding from Anyone.
Especially, (with the exception Germany & France), European Countries.
The question that was asked was – Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union ?
51.89% voted to leave 48.11% voted to remain, over 1 million more people voted to leave than remain, that’s a fairly significant number.
We were never asked to vote on what deal we wanted or how and why we wanted it to be done. The people of the UK voted to leave so belt up, quit with the whining and moaning about whether hard or soft ice cream is best and just get on with it.
Well nobody asked me to respond to this poll. I voted leave, as did the majority of people in Caerffili, and have not changed my mind. My own ‘poll’, and I am probably in contact with more Caerffili people than Focaldata, reveals that of those who voted remain most have changed their opinion and just want to get on with their lives.
Before the real poll, the referendum of 2016, all of the polling companies said that Britain would vote to stay in the EU. Without exception they were wrong.
15.000 People surveyed, And we are expected to change the course of History.
on This. Only Moron’s could go along with this,