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The boundaries governing UK parliamentary seats for Caerphilly County Borough are changing – under proposals from the Boundary Commission for Wales.

The changes, which are set to be finalised next month, have promoted a lot of confusion.

Currently, Wales is divided into 40 constituencies for UK Parliament Elections, with each constituency electing one Member of Parliament. This number is being reduced to 32 ready for the next General Election, which is scheduled for 2024.

However, these boundary changes will not affect Senedd constituency boundaries, which will remain as they are. All areas currently under Caerphilly County Borough Council will continue to be so – meaning we all still pay our council tax to the same organisation.

What are the new proposals?

Under the new proposals, Caerphilly County Borough would still cover three constituencies.

The new Caerphilly constituency is set to be made up of: Morgan Jones, St James, and St Martin’s (which cover Caerphilly town), Aber Valley, Penyrheol, Bedwas, Trethomas, Machen, Nelson, Llanbradach, Ystrad Mynach, Hengoed, St Catwg, with the new additions of Cefn Fforest, Pengam, Pontllanfraith and Maesycwmmer.

The new seat of Newport West and Islwyn will include the wards of Abercarn, Argoed, Blackwood, Crosskeys, Crumlin, Newbridge, Penmaen, Risca East, Risca West and Ynysddu. They would be linked with the Newport council wards of Allt yr Yn, Gaer, Graig, Marshfield, Rogerstone and Tredegar Park.

Aberbargoed, which alongside Bargoed, Gilfach and the Upper Rhymney Valley, would become part of the new Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney constituency.

The Boundary Commission has said it took geography, such as lakes, rivers and mountains, as well as local authority and council ward boundaries, into account when creating its initial proposals. It also said local ties, such as shared history and culture, were taken into account.

Why are these changes happening?

The changes are happening as part of a UK-wide shake-up of parliamentary constituency boundaries.

Earlier proposals would have seen the number of MPs reduced from 650 to 600 across the UK, but this reduction was shelved due to the increased workload faced by MPs in the aftermath of Brexit.

Under rules set out in the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 1986, each constituency proposed by the Boundary Commission must contain a roughly similar size electorate – somewhere between 69,724 and 77,062 electors.

The shake-up is happening due to the fact populations change over time, so therefore boundaries need to be redrawn to ensure communities are fairly represented in Parliament.

However, the Boundary Commission for Wales had no power in setting the number of constituencies in Wales – that was decided by the UK Government.

These boundary changes are happening across the UK to ensure parliamentary constituencies contain roughly similar size electorates. Due to population changes over the years, these boundaries have been redrawn numerous times in the past.

But while Wales loses eight seats, England’s number of seats will rise by ten to 543.

The number of seats in Scotland will drop by two to 57, while the number of seats in Northern Ireland (18) will stay the same.

Will this cause confusion amongst voters?

The changes to the parliamentary constituencies have undoubtedly caused confusion, as voters will be in different areas for different votes.

For example, someone living in Aberbargoed would find themselves in the Bargoed and Aberbargoed council ward when it comes to Caerphilly County Borough Council elections. They would then find themselves in the Islwyn constituency for Senedd Elections, but the Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney constituency for UK Parliamentary Elections.

Meanwhile, someone living in Bargoed, in the same council ward, would also be in the Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney constituency for UK elections, but the Caerphilly constituency for Senedd Elections.

The changing boundaries have also prompted disagreements within the Labour Party over where candidates can stand, with current Islwyn MP Chris Evans selected to stand in Caerphilly, while current Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney MP Gerald Jones heading for the newly-created Merthyr Tydfil and Upper Cynon seat.

Is it too late to change any of this?

In short – yes. The initial plans to change the boundaries this time around were first published in 2021. These were changed last year after a public consultation to what they currently are, with a final consultation closing in November last year.

The Boundary Commission for Wales is required to put its final recommendations forward by July 1.