Support quality, independent, local journalism…that matters

From just £1 a month you can help fund our work – and use our website without adverts. Become a member today

Michael Dauncey, an education specialist from the Senedd’s expert research service, analyses Wales’ performance in the latest PISA tests…

Wales’ PISA scores have fallen further behind the rest of the UK and the international average, as shown by results published earlier today.

The Programme for International Student Assessment, commonly known as PISA, evaluates countries’ education systems based on the performance of a sample of 15-year-olds in standard tests in mathematics, reading and science.

Much attention is focused on countries’ top-line PISA scores and rankings but the programme also provides information and analysis. PISA’s purpose is to help governments improve young people’s education.

Delayed a year from 2021, the 2022 cycle was the first to be held since the emergence of Covid-19 and is set against the considerable impact of the pandemic on schools. 

Jeremy Miles, Wales’ education minister, pointed to the pandemic and the disproportionate impact on areas with higher levels of deprivation as among the reasons for the decline.

In summary, the results show:

• Wales’ scores have decreased since 2018 in mathematics, reading and science by 21, 17 and 15 points respectively
• The other UK nations’ scores have also decreased but the level of decrease is greater in Wales all three subjects
• After improving relative to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) average in 2018, Wales’ scores are again significantly lower than the OECD average in all three domains.
• Wales’ scores are the lowest they have been since first participating in PISA in 2006

The minister said while the pandemic was expected to cause a decline in performance “that does not make these results any less disappointing”. He said the pandemic has “derailed” previous improvement and it “requires a national effort to turn things around”.

The official report on Wales’ results, produced by the University of Oxford, provides further information and analysis on a range of aspects of PISA.

Wales’ PISA scores

Source: Welsh Government, PISA national reports

Table 1: Wales’ mean scores in PISA over time

Source: Welsh Government, PISA national reports

Table 2: UK nations’ mean scores in PISA 2022

Source: Welsh Government, PISA national reports

Note: The OECD advises caution in comparisons between countries, particularly so in 2022 where a number of countries, including England and Scotland, are estimated by the OECD to have a possible upward response bias of 7-9 points in maths and reading.

What is PISA and what is its influence?

PISA is organised by the OECD and usually held every three years. Wales has participated since 2006. Around 80 countries took part in 2022.

PISA aims to test the extent to which 15 year-olds have “acquired the knowledge and skills that are essential for full participation in modern societies”. The OECD explains:

“The assessment does not just ascertain whether students can reproduce knowledge; it also examines how well students can extrapolate from what they have learned and can apply that knowledge in unfamiliar settings, both in and outside of school. This approach reflects the fact that modern economies reward individuals not for what they know, but for what they can do with what they know.”

PISA and the OECD have had a considerable influence on education policy since the 2009 results delivered a “wake up call to a complacent system” and “evidence of systemic failure”.

Previous Welsh Governments asked the OECD to help steer their approach to school improvement, with OECD reports in 2014 and 2017 informing education action plans.

How many pupils took the tests and how were they selected?

2,568 pupils aged 15 in 89 schools across Wales took the PISA 2022 tests in November and December 2022, during a two-hour computer-based exercise. 

For context, there are around 33,000 pupils in year 11 in 178 secondary schools and 27 middle schools in Wales.

Participating pupils and head teachers completed a questionnaire, the results of which are summarised in chapter seven of the University of Oxford’s report.

The majority of the pupils taking the tests were in year 11, while some were in year 10. The report gives further information on sampling arrangements.

Does the Welsh Government have a target for PISA?

It did but not any more.

In 2011, as the Welsh Government was responding to the shock of the 2009 results it set a target for Wales to be in the top 20 PISA nations by 2015. Then, in 2014, it changed this to a target more within its own hands: achieving 500 points in each of the three subjects by 2021.

The first minister confirmed in 2019 that the 500 point target remained in place. But the education minister revealed in 2022 that the Welsh Government no longer held the target.

Instead, he said it “does not have a numerical target” but wants learners to “give a strong account of their capability” and for Wales to learn from taking part.

We can now see that Wales would have missed those targets. Wales’ scores were 34 points short of 500 in maths and reading, and 27 points short in science. Of the other UK nations, only England reached 500 points in any of the domains, scoring 503 in science.

But PISA isn’t the only measure

Other measures, such as GCSEs, A-levels and vocational qualifications are arguably more important to the people undertaking them and the professionals teaching them. Indeed, some have highlighted PISA’s shortcomings, including internationally and in Wales.

The results of those other measures, beyond PISA, show the challenges the Welsh Government’s “national mission” to improve education standards faces.

While changes to performance measures and the suspension of exams during the pandemic limit comparisons, we can analyse the relative attainment between pupils.

The GCSE attainment gap between deprived pupils and their peers widened from 2016 to 2022, with the 2023 data due to be published on December 7.

Data published last month on the personalised assessments taken by pupils in years 2 to 9 in reading and numeracy also shows a downward trend, coinciding with the pandemic. .

Another important measure is provided by the education inspectorate, Estyn, which inspects and reports on the quality of provision and outcomes in schools and other settings.

Estyn’s chief inspector published his summary findings from 2022/23 in October and will publish the annual report in the new year. 

What is the Welsh Government doing to improve educational standards?

The Welsh Government’s stated aim is to “continue our long-term programme of education reform and ensure educational inequalities narrow and standards rise”.

Jeremy Miles, who is responsible for education and the Welsh language, has committed to prioritise “high standards and aspirations for all”. He published a new school improvement framework in 2022 and a ”roadmap” in 2023 giving an overview of the education priorities.

Responding to the discouraging data on personalised assessments (and possibly anticipating today’s PISA results), Mr Miles last week announced a new mathematics and numeracy plan, and an updated oracy and reading toolkit.

Following the written statement, the minister will appear in the Senedd this afternoon. You can watch this on Senedd.tv and a transcript will be available shortly afterwards.

This article was reproduced courtesy of Senedd Research which provides expert and impartial research, analysis and information to members, committees and the wider public.