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By Nye Davies, Cardiff University

More than two decades ago, Rhodri Morgan, then First Minister of Wales, put “clear red water” between Welsh Labour and the UK party. It’s a phrase that became one of the most enduring cliches in Welsh politics.

Now, his successor Eluned Morgan is trying to chart a fresh course with a new slogan: “the red Welsh way”. In a recent speech, Morgan set out Welsh Labour’s core values ahead of the 2026 Senedd (Welsh parliament) election: “Solidarity, equality, sustainability and justice.” These, she argued, are progressive principles rooted in Wales’ political traditions.

But the speech also had a clear strategic purpose: to reassert Welsh Labour’s distinct identity at a time when its dominance in devolved politics is under pressure.

Morgan pledged to stand up for Wales whenever she believed it was being neglected by Westminster or when UK government policies disproportionately harmed the nation. Deploying nationalistic language, while insisting she is not a nationalist, Morgan invoked a history of exploitation in Wales and vowed that such injustices would not be tolerated under Welsh Labour’s watch.

It was also a notable shift in rhetoric. During the 2024 general election, Welsh Labour leaned heavily on the idea of “two governments at both ends of the M4” working together. Morgan’s speech also represents her most forthright attempt yet to replenish the red waters between the Welsh Government and Keir Starmer’s leadership, and her most passionate defence of Welsh Labour as a distinct entity.

Poll pressure

On the very same day, a new poll placed Welsh Labour in third place, behind Plaid Cymru and Reform UK. The polling comes with the familiar caveats. It is only one poll, a lot can change in the course of a year and it would be unwise to underestimate the strength of Welsh Labour’s electoral machine.

Nevertheless, while the Senedd is expanding from 60 to 96 members, Welsh Labour’s presence within it is at risk of shrinking.

Morgan’s speech implicitly recognises that the Labour brand is tainted. With the UK Government chasing Reform UK’s voter base in light of recent election results, the red Welsh way feels like an effort to reclaim ground from Plaid Cymru, to which Welsh Labour appears to be losing support, particularly from left-leaning and Welsh-identifying voters.

Morgan will hope that formulating a new image (or, rather, resurrecting an old one) can revive the party’s fortunes and allow it to continue its over 100 years dominance of Welsh politics.

There is logic to this strategy. I have argued before that Welsh Labour thrives when it articulates a clear, values-driven Welsh identity. But there are now formidable obstacles in Morgan’s path.

First, trying to position a party that has been in government for 26 years as an insurgent force is challenging. The clear red water rhetoric, rooted in progressive principles, has not always been matched in reality.

Strained public services and entrenched poverty in Wales undermine Welsh Labour’s claims to achieving social justice. While constitutional constraints and funding limitations from Westminster are real, slogans alone do not shield people from hardship.

Ultimately, after years of austerity, people in Wales are looking for a party that will offer them hope of a brighter future. Instead of slogans, Welsh Labour will need to show the electorate that it is making a tangible difference to people’s lives. As Morgan herself insisted in the speech: “Less chat, and more do.”

Second, Morgan faces a further challenge from an emboldened Welsh parliamentary Labour party (PLP). A recent Politico article documents the various ways in which the central Labour party is attempting to have a greater say in Welsh Labour’s affairs, from manifesto writing to candidate selection. One Labour figure was quoted as stating: “The Welsh PLP hate the Senedd group.”

Amid reports that Morgan accused Welsh MPs of not standing up for Wales, a Labour Senedd member has warned of “simmering discontent” with Westminster.

A party at a crossroads

Among these challenges, Welsh Labour will struggle with its claim to be standing up for Wales when judged against outcomes. Repeated failures to secure rail funding, further devolution and even consideration for the effects of policy changes on Wales, suggest that Welsh Labour’s voice in Westminster still struggles to carry weight. That’s even under a Labour-led UK government.

In truth, the red Welsh way reflects a party caught in a strategic bind. It’s eager to differentiate itself, but hamstrung by its own long-term incumbency, internal divisions and limited power.

As the 2026 Senedd election draws closer, Welsh Labour will throw everything at shifting the narrative. But as things stand, the clear red water that once symbolised distance from Westminster has become muddied.

Nye Davies, Lecturer in Politics, Cardiff University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.