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Recycling rate targets will “definitely” be missed again in Caerphilly this year, councillors have been warned.

The county borough council has lagged behind many other Welsh local authorities’ recycling performance in recent years, putting it at risk of multimillion-pound fines.

It is now recommending a switch to three-weekly collections of non-recyclable “residual” waste.

The council claims this will encourage people to think more carefully about what they throw away.

Since April, Welsh councils have been required to recycle 70% of the waste they collect – yet figures for 2023/24 (the most recent available) show Caerphilly only managed 60%.

Seven-figure penalties would be devastating for a local authority already facing a significant funding gap over the next three years.

Cllr Chris Morgan, Caerphilly’s cabinet member for waste services, said the council was “underperforming” in its recycling efforts and had accrued potential backdated fines of around £3.7 million.

It has managed to avoid paying that penalty by persuading the Welsh Government it was working hard to take “clear and decisive action” under a new waste strategy, he added.

But punishments are still a “practical threat”, and Cllr Morgan said a Welsh Government minister had previously challenged the council to “show me why I shouldn’t fine you”.

Caerphilly’s environment committee met on Tuesday June 17 to discuss the next phase of the waste strategy – including the recommendation to cut bin collections from a fortnightly service to every three weeks.

A council report predicts the measure, combined with a new container and bag system for sorting different recyclable materials at home, could send Caerphilly above the Welsh Government’s 70% target.

In both cases, the council would introduce those changes in “late 2027 or early 2028”, Cllr Morgan said.

Waste services manager Hayley Jones said there “has been a positive impact in some areas”, including food waste, since the council adopted the strategy’s initial “quick wins”.

Councillors Carl Cuss and Shane Williams both questioned whether further steps, including wholesale changes to residents’ recycling containers, were necessary given the encouraging signs.

“I’m not against change, but if things are going in the right direction, why are we changing it?” asked Cllr Cuss, who described the current recycling system as “easy” and “popular”.

Cllr Williams also said things were moving in the “right direction”, and asked why the council was “rushing to change” the system by introducing “quite a number of containers”.

Their optimism over the current trend was dampened by the response from Ms Jones, who said: “I can say with some confidence we definitely won’t be meeting the targets for this financial year”.

“The target will be 70% and with the data we’re aware of, and the changes we made, we will definitely not be achieving that percentage,” she added.

Cabinet members are expected to make a final decision on the proposals at a meeting in July.