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More than 3,000 patients across Gwent are likely to have to wait more than two years for some surgeries over the next year. 

The figure, which would represent a failure to meet Welsh Government time targets, is included in the Aneurin Bevan University Health Board’s annual plan for NHS services in Gwent.

This year the health board, which covers Caerphilly County Borough, had just 434 patients waiting more than two years, but it says it cannot sustain those “low numbers” without additional money.

Health chiefs acknowledged the board’s stretched financial position – and its expectation it will end the 2026/27 financial year £43.7 million in the red – means it will be unable to meet all Welsh Government targets.

Hannah Evans, the director of planning, said it is focusing on improving urgent and emergency care after the Welsh Government escalated the board’s oversight status in December.

Ministers said improvement was needed in the emergency department at Cwmbran’s Grange Hospital as well as in the board’s financial management.

Board members approved the annual plan at a meeting on March 25.

Ms Evans told them: “It’s really important as a board we are clear going into the next year what our priorities are, the commitments and realise the implications of that.” 

But she said progress in reducing two-year, or 104-week, waits for surgery could not be maintained because reductions achieved in the outgoing financial year were largely due to one-off, or non-recurrent, funding.

“The 104-week waiting time is one of the most significant” of the government set targets unlikely to be met, she said.

“Significant progress was made this year was largely down to non-recurrent national funding. We’re not able to maintain that pace without additional funding.” 

Ms Evans said around 1,400 of the patients expected to wait more than two years will be waiting for orthopaedic treatment. Other areas affected include ear, nose and throat, general surgery, maxillofacial services and ophthalmology.

She added: “We know we must continue work to improve that and it’s not acceptable to have patients waiting that long.”

The plan does commit the board to meeting the target that 75% of people should start treatment, or be discharged, within 62 days of a suspected diagnosis. In the current year the figure achieved was 55.9%.

The board also aims to reduce the backlog of patients waiting more than 62 days by the end of March 2027.

It hopes to meet the target that no patient waits more than eight weeks for a specified diagnostic test by March next year. The current figure stands at 2,387.

However, the plan acknowledges other targets will also be missed.

These include the target that no ambulance should wait more than 45 minutes to hand over a patient, and that no patient should spend more than 12 hours in emergency departments from arrival to admission, transfer or discharge.

In the current year, 1,471 ambulances have waited more than 45 minutes to hand over patients at the Grange Hospital. The plan aims to reduce that to 354 by March 2027.

Currently 1,089 patients have waited more than 12 hours in emergency departments, with the intention that this falls to 799.

Ms Evans said that while some Welsh Government targets will be missed, the figures in the plan are designed to meet the criteria required for the board to be “de-escalated” under the Welsh Government’s oversight framework.

Overall, the plan expects the health board to meet 16 of the 20 Welsh Government targets.