Former Welsh Secretary Ron Davies has been named the favourite to become Caerphilly’s next Assembly Member in 2011.
Councillor Davies, who is a cabinet member on Caerphilly County Borough Council, is standing in the constituency as a Plaid Cymru candidate.
The former Labour man was named favourite by political forecaster Karl Williams, who gave odds of 8-11 for BBC Welsh Affairs Editor Vaughan Roderick’s Welsh-language blog.
Williams quoted evens for current Labour AM Jeff Cuthbert.
Roderick said that naming Cllr Davies as favourite was a “stretch” but that the seat was “certainly one to watch”.
Cllr Davies, who famously resigned from Tony Blair’s first Cabinet in 1998, stood as an independent candidate in the last Assembly election in 2007 and came third behind Labour’s Jeff Cuthbert and Plaid’s Lindsay Whittle, the current leader of Caerphilly Council.
On that result, the combined vote for Ron Davies and Lindsay Whittle would have been enough to beat Labour. With Davies standing for Plaid in 2011, the seat has become a focus point as one that Labour could realistically lose.
Cllr Davies, gave the news of his “bookies’ favourite” status a cautious welcome. He said: “I have a fantastic reception throughout the constituency since being chosen to stand for Plaid but these are very early days in the campaign.
“It is clear that Caerphilly is a two horse race and Labour is in disarray in the constituency.
“I want to get the message across that Labour failed us when they were in charge in Wales and Westminster, and effectively opened the door to let the Tories back in to power.
“Plaid will always put Wales first and as we get this message across I am sure we will build on this promising start.”
Mr Cuthbert, who succeeded Davies as Labour’s AM in 2003, said: ““The electorate of Caerphilly will decide who wins this contest.
“In the meantime, I will continue to do the job that I am paid to do until such time as the Assembly is dissolved.”
Surely being an Assembly Member is something you do out of conviction and pride, not as a job opportunity?
Caerphilly deserves a better voice for them at the Assembly, and I think the Assembly needs politicians of Ron Davies' standard. I like Jeff Cuthbert on a personal level, I just think Ron Davies would make a better Assembly Member.
Dear Sir,As a former Plaid Cymru councillor,from the Caerphilly area.I think Ron Daives was a very good MP, and will make a very good AM, i wish hom all the best in the forthcoming election.
David Smith.
We need politicians like Ron here in Bedwas. All we get are labour leaflets attacking welsh speakers, welsh schools and plaid (i dont speak Welsh but i think they are almost obsessed with their attacks – typical labour politics of fear). The country is in a mess because of them and labour in westminster only care about Wales now theyve been kicked out and want to make mischief.
I think Ron is a very well repsected politiciain and I hope he wins Caerffili for Plaid Cymru. It is only Plaid that puts the people of Wales first and i'm sure as the architect of develoution the assembly would need a politician of Ron's calibre.
Ron's had his chance more than once and let the side down. How many times can a leopard change its spots?
Ron Davies knocks spots off Jeff Cuthbert.If Plaid can get 2 off the list system then Jocelyn Davies and Lindsay Whittle can be elected onto the Assembly.What a team.
OK if you have £1100 and want some of the action to return £1900 (including your stake) on Ron Davies winning the seat, how do you place a bet with Roderick? He gives the odds but no instructions as to how to place the bet.
If he is not running the book, who is?
In this "2 horse race" Honest Roderick Turf Accountants might be minded to follow the great Bookmaker Mr Gilliband of Blackpool and stir up some action with a betting without the favourite offer!
Devolution is a process and not an event!!!! Ron has a good chance of winning Caerffili. If he succeeds, and is elected within a Plaid Cymru coalition, Im sure he'll be the best man for any ministeral job. He's certainly at the top of the political charts when it comes to caring and working for common people. I'd like to see him as the First Minister. He certainly deserves it!
You can't bet on this at the moment because there are no odds actually out there – this is just one of Ron's mates trying to build momentum for him.
Goodness knows he needs it, what with his flawed reputation, and Plaid struggling to rise above the Tories in the polls.
Yeah, to be fair, he can be a charismatic politician but I don't actually give a damn – he's a terrible person who simply cannot be allowed to represent us.