The powers that be have warned that lockdown restrictions could return to Caerphilly County Borough if a spike in coronavirus cases is not contained.

A lack of social distancing by the public has been blamed for the rise. Caerphilly Observer understands there have been clusters of cases in Caerphilly town, Bargoed and Blackwood.

So great is the concern from health officials, visits to care homes across the county borough have been stopped and a mobile testing centre has been set up in the car park of Caerphilly Leisure Centre.

We have reported about the Wingfield in Llanbradach and the Red Kite pub near Castle View closing because of positive tests (both have since reopened) and there have been other reports of a staff member at the Mountain Snackbar testing positive and Bedwas RFC closing after a customer tested positive.

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What do the statistics tell us?

Over the last few days, Caerphilly Observer and other media have been reporting the headline figures from Public Health Wales.

For example, the headline figure released on Saturday, September 5, saw 14 new positive tests reported.

This figure however is not entirely as it seems at first glance. It is the number of new cases PHW were aware of as of September 4 – the day before.

Even then, this figure is still not what you think it ought to be as it includes positive tests that may have occurred a few days prior, but that PHW were only made aware of on September 4.

The headline figure for Caerphilly County Borough for September 4 (which was published on September 5) is 14 new cases.

The latest spreadsheet containing the detailed data, which can be downloaded from the PHW stats website, shows zero new cases for September 4.

This is because the 14 cases were actually tested for a few days prior, but PHW only became aware of them on September 4. We will have a far more accurate reflection of what has been going on in the last few days over the course of the next week.

However, the figures do show the fortnight up to September 2 saw 87 new cases of coronavirus. The two weeks prior to that (August 6 to August 19) saw 16. The two weeks before that (July 23 to August 5), there was just 1.

Testing

Using the dates mentioned above, let’s have a look at the number of tests carried out.

Between August 20 and September 2: 2,896 tests (87 positives – 3%).
Between August 6 and August 19: 1,715 tests (16 positives – 0.9%).
Between July 23 and August 5: 1,583 tests (one positive – 0.06%).

While more tests are undoubtedly being carried out, the percentage of those coming back positive is also increasing.

Should I be concerned?

There has been a lot of comment on Caerphilly Observer’s Facebook page regarding our coverage. People have criticised us for “scaremongering” and “inciting fear” and that we are only publishing “negative” coronavirus updates to boost the number of visitors to our website.

Our job is simply to report what we know to our readers and to put that into context. It may be frightening, but people need to know this information.

We know a lot more about the virus now and how effective social distancing can be – hence the warnings from officials.

What have health bosses and others said?

Dr Robin Howe, PHW’s incident director for the virus, told BBC Radio Wales on Friday, September 4, the rise should be a “warning for the rest of Wales”.

He said: “We’ve seen this uptick in cases getting to quite a worrying level in Caerphilly town, in Blackwood and other areas in the county so it’s actually fairly widespread…

“People have not been following social distancing rules and having house parties and the like… it is a warning for the rest of Wales.”

In a statement issued on Friday, September 4, Caerphilly Senedd Member Hefin David said there were no immediate plans to introduce a local lockdown.

However he did warn that restrictions could return during an interview with BBC Radio Wales on Saturday.

“The thing I desperately don’t want to see is another harsh lockdown…as we had in March,” he said.

“The only way we are going to avoid doing that is if we get back to that disciplined process that we had and were doing so well at.”