The latest headline figure released by Public Health Wales (PHW) shows 25 new cases of coronavirus in Caerphilly County Borough.
The headline figure, which was released on Wednesday (October 7), shows how many new coronavirus cases PHW was made aware of on Tuesday (October 6).
The latest figures show 752 new confirmed cases across Wales – with three deaths.
Caerphilly was the first council area in Wales to be placed under a local lockdown by Welsh Government on September 8. Since then, 14 more local authority areas and one town have been placed under local lockdown restrictions.
However, the rate of infection in Caerphilly has slowed considerably in the weeks since the local lockdown was imposed.
Between September 28 and October 4, 94 new coronavirus cases have been recorded in the borough. This equates to 51.9 cases per 100,000 people.
The week running from September 7 to September 13, in which the local lockdown came into force in Caerphilly, the incidence rate was 119.3 – more than double what it is currently.
Dr Robin Howe, incident director at PHW, said: “Following the introduction of restrictions in the borough of Caerphilly, our data is beginning to show a downward trend.
“Although we cannot categorically say this trend is a result of lockdown, we are cautiously optimistic and we are looking at a number of alternative sources to validate these results.”
Out of the 22 local authority areas in Wales, only five currently have a lower incidence rate, per 100,000 people, than Caerphilly. These are: Ceredigion (42.6), Monmouthshire (31.7), Powys (26.4), Anglesey (22.8) and Pembrokeshire (22.3).
How does the incidence rate compare with other areas in lockdown?
The number of cases per 100,000 people in each local authority area currently in lockdown, based on a seven-day rolling average from September 28 and October 4, are as follows:
Merthyr Tydfil – 200.6
Rhondda Cynon Taf – 178.2
Swansea – 130.8
Wrexham – 126.5
Flintshire – 125.6
Bridgend – 123.8
Cardiff – 120.2
Blaenau Gwent – 108.8
Neath Port Talbot – 91.4
Denbighshire – 87.8
Conwy – 66.6
Torfaen – 62.8
Vale of Glamorgan – 57.6
Carmarthenshire – 56.7*
Newport – 53
CAERPHILLY – 51.9
*While Carmarthenshire is not under a local lockdown, the town of Llanelli, which is part of Carmarthenshire, has been been under local lockdown restrictions since September 26.
What does ‘headline figure’ mean?
In recent weeks, Caerphilly Observer and other media have been reporting the headline figures from Public Health Wales.
For example, the headline figure released on Wednesday, October 7 saw 25 new positive tests reported.
This figure however is not entirely as it seems at first glance. It is the number of new cases PHW were aware of as of October 6 – the day before.
Even then, this figure is still not what you think it ought to be as it includes positive tests that may have occurred a few days prior, but that PHW were only made aware of on October 6.
The headline figure for Caerphilly County Borough for October 6 (which was published on October 7) is 25 new cases.
The latest spreadsheet containing the detailed data, which can be downloaded from the PHW stats website, actually shows one new case for October 6.
This is because the six cases were actually tested for a few days prior, but PHW only became aware of them on October 6. We will have a far more accurate reflection of what has been going on in the last few days over the course of the next week.
However, the figures do show the week up to October 4 saw 94 new coronavirus cases recorded in Caerphilly County Borough.
The previous week (September 21 to September 27) saw 98 new cases.
The week before that (September 14 to September 20) saw 122 new cases, while there were 216 new coronavirus cases recorded during the week of September 7 to September 13).
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