
The latest headline figure released by Public Health Wales (PHW) shows 46 new cases of coronavirus in Caerphilly County Borough.
The headline figure, which was released on Monday, January 25, shows how many new coronavirus cases PHW was made aware of on Wednesday, January 24.
The latest figures show 872 new confirmed cases across Wales – with 23 deaths.
However, many of these new cases were actually tested for in previous days.
The figures were published with a disclaimer, which reads: “Due to a lag in receiving data, cases sampled in recent days will not be fully reflected in these data, so the incidence is likely to be an underestimate.”
The headline figure is the number of new cases PHW has been made aware of – not the number of cases recorded on a particular day.
Since December 20, Wales has been placed under Alert Level 4 restrictions.
Between January 14 and January 20, 2,747 tests were carried out in Caerphilly County Borough. Of these tests, 13.1% came back positive.
Number of cases recorded in Caerphilly County Borough in recent weeks
January 11-17 – 403 new cases (2,761 tests – 14.6% positive)
January 4-10 – 628 new cases (3,559 tests – 17.6% positive)
December 28 – January 3 – 880 new cases (3,533 tests – 24.9% positive)
December 21-27 – 927 new cases (3,659 tests – 25.3% positive)
December 14-20 – 1,426 new cases (5,663 tests – 25.2% positive)
December 7-13 – 1,434 new cases (5,300 tests – 27.1% positive)
November 30 – December 6 – 913 new cases (4,691 tests – 19.5% positive)
November 23-29 – 539 new cases (3,697 tests – 14.6% positive)
November 16-22 – 492 new cases (3,138 tests – 15.7% positive)
November 9-15 – 460 new cases (2,409 tests – 19.1% positive)
November 2-8 – 504 new cases (2,523 tests – 20% positive)
October 26 – November 1 – 631 new cases (from 2,834 tests – 22.3% positive)
October 19-25 – 502 new cases (from 2,840 tests – 17.7% positive)
October 12-18 – 313 new cases (from 2,235 tests – 14% positive)
October 5-11 – 233 new cases (from 2,413 tests – 9.7% positive)
September 28 – October 4 – 120 new cases (from 2,326 tests – 5.2% positive)
September 21-27 – 98 new cases (from 2,400 tests – 4.1% positive)
September 14-20 – 122 new cases (from 3,408 tests – 3.6% positive)
September 7-13 – 216 new cases (from 6,317 tests – 3.4% positive)
How does the percentage of positive tests compare with other parts of Wales?
The percentage of positive test results in each local authority area, based on a seven-day rolling average from January 14 to January 20, are as follows:
Wrexham – 23.2% (750 positive cases out of 3,230 tests)
Flintshire – 21.8% (646 positive cases out of 2,967 tests)
Bridgend – 17.8% (486 positive cases out of 2,080 tests)
Newport – 17.7% (478 positive cases out of 2,698 tests)
Cardiff – 17.5% (864 positive cases out of 4,950 tests)
Neath Port Talbot – 17.2% (338 positive cases out of 1,964 tests)
Vale of Glamorgan – 15.6% (288 positive cases out of 1,852 tests)
Carmarthenshire – 15.1% (424 positive cases out of 2,805 tests)
Denbighshire – 14.8% (278 positive cases out of 1,880 tests)
Rhondda Cynon Taf – 13.7% (477 positive cases out of 3,477 tests)
CAERPHILLY – 13.1% (360 positive cases out of 2,747 tests)
Torfaen – 13.1% (201 positive cases out of 1,532 tests)
Pembrokeshire – 13% (215 positive cases out of 1,655 tests)
Merthyr Tydfil – 12.6% (129 positive cases out of 1,026 tests)
Swansea – 12.2% (367 positive cases out of 2,997 tests)
Anglesey – 12.1% (105 positive cases out of 865 tests)
Ceredigion – 12.1% (94 positive cases out of 774 tests)
Powys – 11.7% (206 positive cases out of 1,767 tests)
Gwynedd – 11.5% (215 positive cases out of 1,869 tests)
Conwy – 10.1% (178 positive cases out of 1,757 tests)
Monmouthshire – 10% (128 positive cases out of 1,281 tests)
Blaenau Gwent – 9.5% (104 positive cases out of 1,092 tests)
How does the incidence rate compare with other areas in Wales?
The number of cases per 100,000 people in each local authority area, based on a seven-day rolling average from January 14 to January 20, are as follows:
Wrexham – 551.6
Flintshire – 413.8
Newport – 300
Denbighshire – 290.5
Bridgend – 252.3
Neath Port Talbot – 235.8
Cardiff – 235.5
Carmarthenshire – 224.6
Vale of Glamorgan – 215.6
Torfaen – 213.9
Merthyr Tydfil – 213.8
CAERPHILLY – 198.8
Rhondda Cynon Taf – 197.7
Gwynedd – 172.6
Pembrokeshire – 170.9
Powys – 155.5
Conwy – 151.9
Anglesey – 149.9
Blaenau Gwent – 148.9
Swansea – 148.6
Monmouthshire – 135.3
Ceredigion – 129.3
What does ‘headline figure’ mean?
In recent months, Caerphilly Observer and other media have been reporting the headline figures from Public Health Wales.
For example, the headline figure released on Monday, January 25 saw 46 new cases of coronavirus in Caerphilly County Borough.
This figure however is not entirely as it seems at first glance. It is the number of new cases PHW were aware of as of January 24 – the day before.
Even then, this figure is still not what you think it ought to be as it includes positive tests that may have occurred a few days prior, but that PHW were only made aware of on January 24.
The headline figure for Caerphilly County Borough for January 24 (which was published on January 25) is 46 new cases.
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