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By Michael Woods, Aberystwyth University and Charles Musselwhite, Aberystwyth University

Nigel Farage has announced Reform UK’s first policy pledge of the Welsh election campaign in May: to scrap the default urban speed limit of 20mph introduced by the Labour Welsh Government in 2023.

Like the Welsh Conservatives, who are also committed to reversing the legislation, Reform UK have identified frustration with the 20mph limit in Wales as a widespread and emotive issue that it hopes will help to propel the party to seat gains in the election. It is currently second in the polls, behind the centre-left Welsh nationalist party Plaid Cymru.

Reform said it will scrap the “blanket approach” to the speed limit, but would still have it around schools and hospitals. Welsh Labour have also said that some roads will return to 30mph under its plans.

Meanwhile, the Wales Green party leader Anthony Slaughter suggested that the party could push for extensions to 20mph coverage in local government, speaking to the BBC Radio 4 Today programme in January.

Polling by More in Common shows that the 20mph limit is the best known of the current Welsh Government’s policies, with 90% of respondents confirming awareness, but also the second most unpopular. Some 55% of people polled considered that the change reflected negatively on Welsh Labour, compared with 21% who viewed it positively.

Yet, for others the 20mph limit is a flagship achievement. Lee Waters, the former transport minister who introduced the legislation, has admitted mistakes in the way it was introduced, but told BBC Wales: “The data and evidence shows that it will save lives, and in time it will settle down.”

The history of 20mph limits

The legislation reduced the default speed limit on so-called “restricted roads” in Wales (essentially roads in built-up areas) from 30mph to 20mph.

Part of the aim was to reduce the number of collisions and injuries from road collisions (as well as the cost to the National Health Service of treating these casualties), encouraging walking and cycling, and improving health and wellbeing.

As elsewhere in Britain, 20mph zones already existed in high-risk sites such as outside schools. Exceptions also applied to the 20mph default, with local authorities identifying roads where a 30mph limit would remain.

Overall, the 20mph limit currently applies to 37% of the road network in Wales. The policy featured in both the Labour and Plaid Cymru manifestos for the 2021 Senedd (Welsh parliament) election. It was also supported by the sole Liberal Democrat Senedd Member, when introduced.

Conservative Senedd Members voted against the legislation. The measure was controversial, with noisy opposition from sections of the public.

A petition to repeal the law attracted 469,571 signatures and new 20mph road signs were defaced in many parts of Wales.

There was widespread media coverage describing confusion over the speed limit and claiming negative effects on bus timetables, tourism and businesses.

A lack of consistent polling makes it difficult to track public opinion on the issue. Polls in October 2023 and July 2024 recorded 54% and 72% of Welsh voters opposed to the 20mph limit respectively, but no more recent poll has directly asked about the policy.

However, a softening of attitudes over time was identified by an analysis of posts on the social media platform X at implementation in September 2023 and six months later. Not only did comments become less negative towards the change, but the content also evolved. Right after implementation, tweets focused on politics, especially criticisms of Welsh Government.

Six months later, discussion shifted toward everyday impact: improved safety around schools and residential streets, benefits for pedestrians and cyclists and urban mobility such as buses and traffic flow. Although political criticism remained, misinformation decreased and conversation became more grounded in lived experience, with safety, especially for children and communities, more prominent.

Psychologists refer to this movement as the Goodwin Curve: when behaviour people are anxious about doesn’t materialise, their attitudes soften and they become more accepting of policy change.

Early reports on the impact of the 20mph speed limit were anecdotal. More than two years after implementation, however, there is a growing body of objective evidence on its effects, especially around speed and collision data. The most recent figures show that average speeds for road traffic in Wales have fallen by 3.3 mph.

Relatedly, there has been a marked reduction in both collisions and casualties on roads where the speed limit changed from 30mph to 20mph. In 2024, the first full year after the change, collisions on 20mph and 30mph roads combined were down 23.5% compared with 2022, and casualties were down by 25.8%.

Evidence of environmental and social impacts is less conclusive. Early monitoring shows no material change in air quality (NO₂, PM₁₀ or PM₂.₅) in pilot areas up to April 2024, and analysis of CO₂ emissions is still ongoing. Impacts on walking and cycling also remain unclear, as post-implementation active travel data has not yet been reported.

Speed and the Senedd

So, why are speed limits back on the election agenda? Reform and the Conservatives both cite the cost of the policy, estimated at £32 million. Yet, as journalist Will Hayward points out, this spend has already happened and returning to 30mph would also be expensive.

The significance of 20mph to Reform and the Conservatives is about setting the tone of the election. It is an issue that speaks to the continuing scepticism of some of the Welsh electorate towards devolution.

What’s more, the issue encapsulates different visions for Welsh society. For the right-wing parties, opposition to the 20mph limit reflects a championing of individualism and “common sense” against the perceived intrusive paternalism of the left. As Farage told journalists in Newport: “It’s an example of government saying we know what is best for you, and you must comply with us.”

Reform UK has targeted car drivers as a potential voting base before. Reform-led councils in England have vowed to dismantle low-traffic neighbourhoods, for instance, even in areas that didn’t actually have them.

For some left-wing politicians, on the other hand, the 20mph speed limit is emblematic of a devolved Welsh Government taking bold, pioneering action for health and environmental wellbeing. Reductions both in collisions and in motor insurance premiums could be presented as evidence of delivering benefits to Welsh people.

Labour and Plaid Cymru are unlikely to want the 20mph speed limit to be a major topic in the election, and would prefer to focus on issues around jobs, education, health care and public transport. Whether they can achieve a swing to those issues as the primary topic of discussion will be down to the public’s interest, and possibly media coverage.

Michael Woods, Professor of Human Geography, Aberystwyth University and Charles Musselwhite, Professor of Psychology, Aberystwyth University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.