The Parliamentary constituencies of Caerphilly and Islwyn could disappear off the Parliamentary political map after plans to slash the number of Welsh MPs were unveiled.
The Boundary Commission for Wales has proposed cutting the number of Welsh MPs’ seats from 40 to 30, with the names and sizes of constituencies being changed.
The proposals are part of a UK-wide overhaul to cut the total number of MPs to 600 from 650.
Caerphilly, currently represented by Labour’s Wayne David would mostly be merged into Cardiff North to create Caerphilly and Cardiff North, while Islwyn, currently held by Labour’s Chris Evans, would be split in two and merged with neighbouring constituencies of Newport West and Blaenau Gwent.
Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney would largely remain intact, but have the addition of some wards from the Rhondda Cynon Taf area.
The changes would mean the area of Caerphilly County Borough would have four Members of Parliament instead of the current three.
A spokesman for Welsh Labour said: “These plans, as pushed by the Tory/Lib Dem Government, have always been about reducing Wales’s voice and influence at Westminster. Welsh Labour has opposed the plans on this basis and continues to do so.
“However, the publication of these initial proposals means that communities can now start the important discussion about the future of democratic representation here in Wales, a process that Welsh Labour will be taking a very firm lead on. We will be considering the proposals in detail, working with our elected representatives and party members to build a consensus on the best way forward for the people of Wales.
“The process will take some time and Welsh Labour will be focusing on getting the best deal possible for our communities. We will not be engaging in conjecture and speculation.”
Wayne David, who has been Caerphilly’s Labour MP since 2001, said the new constituencies would mean less representation for Wales in Parliament and that the changes were politically motivated.
He said: “My concern is that inevitably we are having larger constituencies. It will be more difficult for any MP to represent distinct communities. It’s very difficult to see a community of interest between Caerphilly and Cardiff North – there is a mountain between the two areas.
“With the other seat being proposed, Newport West and Sirhowy, you’ll have a seat extending from Nelson in the north to Risca and Newport. It’s very difficult to see a community of interest there. It will be very difficult to represent people of such a diverse area.”
South Wales East Assembly Member Lindsay Whittle has criticised the change, although the boundary changes do not affect the Welsh Assembly for now.
Mr Whittle, who regular stood as a Parliamentary candidate in Caerphilly over the last 30 years, said: “Caerphilly people will be outraged at the proposed decimation and gerrymandering of our constituency. We are valley towns and villages not part of greater Cardiff or, indeed, a greater Newport.
“Cardiff North has been represented by many Conservative politicians over the years, including the current MP. This may suit people in the leafy suburbs of Cardiff but is totally irrelevant to our valley way of life.”
Islwyn’s Labour MP Chris Evans added: “These plans have always been about reducing Wales’ influence at Westminster. My concern is that these changes will lead to a loss of voice for valleys communities.”
Announcement of the boundary shake-up sees the beginning of a 12-week consultation period.
Cardiff’s Millennium Stadium, on February 22 and 23, will hold one of five public meeting sessions across Wales.
Views from these meetings will be published at a later date before a second four-week consultation period begins.
The commission’s final proposals are expected to be submitted to Parliament by October 2013.
Ben Whitestone, secretary to the commission, said: “The commission has produced a set of initial proposals which meet the requirement of the 2011 (Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies) Act.
“It has also taken into account other relevant factors and has sought to identify the solutions most suitable to local needs within Wales.
“I would emphasise that these are initial proposals and I very much hope that members of the public will participate in the process of consultation which now begins.”
Caerphilly County Borough wards that would be represented by Newport West and Sirhowy
The wards of Aberbargoed, Abercarn, Bargoed, Crosskeys, Gilfach, Hengoed, Llanbradach, Maesycwmmer, Nelson, Pengam, Pontllanfraith, Risca East, Risca West, St. Cattwg, Ynysddu and Ystrad Mynach.
Caerphilly County Borough wards that would be represented by Caerphilly and North Cardiff
Aber Valley, Bedwas, Trethomas and Machen, Morgan Jones, Penyrheol, St. James and St. Martins would be included in Caerphilly and North Cardiff.
Caerphilly County Borough wards that would be represented by Blaenau Gwent
Argoed, Blackwood, Cefn Fforest, Crumlin, Newbridge and Penmaen.
Caerphilly County Borough wards that would be represented by Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney
Darran Valley, Moriah, New Tredegar, Pontlottyn and Twyn Carno
The whole idea is silly, reducing the number of constituencies from 40 to 30 is blatant gerrymandering to ensure the Tories have a better chance of winning overall. Locally the concept of linking the southern half of Caerphilly Borough to north Cardiff will be a marraige made in hell, the two are like cahlk and cheese with no common interest or indentity.yet again its civil servants with no background knowledge drawing lines on maps to gerrymander a new Tory seat. Theres more democracy in North Korea than in these proposals.
As usual John Owen is of on one his rants. In reality, this proposal recognises that most of Caerphilly town and basin has more in common with north Cardiff, than Caerphilly has with the rest of the blighted Rhymney valley.
The reduction in constituencies is due to three factors,
1) The Tories have long viewed the lack of Welsh Tory seats with displeasure and, naturally, wish to remedy this when they are in government.
2) Most of the work that used to be done at Westminster is now tackled by unelected mandarins in Strasburg, Brussels and elsewhere in Europe. Thus we do not need as many MPs as we used to.
3) Devolution inevitably means that the English wish to reduce the influence of Welsh people's votes on the composition of the London parliament.
This reduction is the inevitable consequence of the policies of the Labour, Plaid and Tory parties. On the possible boundary of our constituency I can see Ron James' point that Caerffili shares more common ground with Cardiff than it does with Pontlottyn. This may be a good thing as our political masters have long tried to make Caerffili part of Gwent. Our courts, police, health care, etc have all migrated to Gwent. Caerffili is a Glamorgan town, always has been, the Rhymney river separates us from Gwent.
Personally I would prefer, for my survival chances, to be treated in the Heath Hospital, Cardiff, rather than the Royal Gwent. Nothing wrong, either, with being policed by the South Wales Constabulary (or what ever they now call themselves) rather than Gwent police.
Ron James, wrong again.#
Caerphilly basin holds the record for having in its midst the second most deprived ward,in boundary terms, in Wales, let Ron James tell those people who live, no survive, there that their lot will improve when they join the ranks of the `leafy suburbs` of North Cardiff. I really dont think so.
Trefor Bond may point out that one ward in the Caerphilly basin is the second most deprived ward in Wales, but ita only one ward. The rest of the Caerphilly basin is doing quite well, and not all north Cardiff is leafy suburb, there are parts of Llanishen that are poor and deprived as well. Anyway I would have thought trefor Bond would be happy the new Caerphilly/North Cardiff Constituency will return a Conservative MP.
If Ron James thinks any of my comments, anywhere, are in support of Tories he is delusional.
In fact I have a severe nose bleed thinking about them.
I hope this clear enough for Ron NOT to repeat his assertion that I support this or any other Conservative Government, I am old enough to remember the total destruction imposed on the valley`s communities by the last Tory Government, it makes me sick to think that much the same is being done by Cameron and Clegg today. This time they are directly attacking the Old, the infirm, the disabled and the already financially disenfranchised.
Finally, would Ron James like to inform anyone who read these blogs where how on earth he extrapulates my comments, anywhere, to be in support of Tories???
Without wishing to comment much on the specifics, I think it is worth pointing out that this is an excercise being done across the country. Some of the comments here seem to think Wales is being singled out to have seats cut. In fact, Wales has had more seats – and has more politicians – than pretty much any other part of the country.
Surely it can only be fair than each MP represent roughly the smae number of people?
If you accept that as a starting point, you have to draw boundary lines somewhere! You can just as easyily argue that someone in Bedwas or Machen has little "in common community" with Ystrad (by way of example).
Boundaries will never be a perfect science, but we have to start somewhere.
Just read your comments over the months,they are the opinion of the Tory Working Man, nothing wrong with that.
Ron James asserts, quite definitely,
"the new Caerphilly/North Cardiff Constituency will return a Conservative MP."
The present Cardiff North is indeed Conservative; the Tory candidate beat Julie Morgan (Lab) by 194 votes. This was a creditable Labour performance in a general election they lost. Given that Wayne David has a majority of more than 10,000, once again in an election where Labour did badly, nationally, I would presume that Labour would win a merged seat at a gallop.
Maybe Ron James has access to information, unknown to me, that may back up his seemingly wild assertion? Perhaps not as he thinks Trefor Bond would be happy for the Conservatives to win. I happen to know Trefor quite well, he was my election agent in 2008. He works (unpaid) assiduously for the poorer parts of our community, diligently scrutinises local government actions that may harm the less well off and has, for years, been a thorn in the side of councillors and officers that seek to keep hidden their less altruistic actions.
I enjoy reading Ron James’ comments in this on-line paper and am happy to indicate my agreement with some of the points he makes. He does have a tendency to make assumptions, however, such as when he stated that I was a party to a “narrow minded English Ratepayers Caucus, hate Wales, the Welsh”, etc. Which gave me, and all who know me and my real views, a good laugh.
Come on Ron James, you can do better. Rather than attack fellow contributors, furnishing them with an ideology poles apart from their real point of view, why not just write what you think of the issue in question? Leave the personal attacks to second rate politicians and councillors, there are plenty of them around.
Richard, you should know that the vast majority of the Labour vote in the existing Caerphilly Constituency is north of Caerphilly, so the idea is to merge the Tory voting Caerphilly Basin with North Cardiff, creating a safe Tory seat. You should also know in Welsh politics that Independents are Conservatives under another name. This proposal is blatant gerrymandering by the Conservative Governmnet to ensure Labour lose an MP and the Conservatives keep one. The whole scheme of reorganisation is blatantly unfair with Wales losing 10 out of the 50 seats to be lost in the reduction from 650 to 600 seats in the whole of the United Kingdom. Its a scam to ensure a third world style of democracy, in which the ruling party stop their opponents having any electoral representation.
Ron, I simply do not follow your logic. I have absolutely no idea how the individual wards that make up the Caerphilly constituency cast their vote in a general election, votes cast at a council election have very little bearing on it. I vote differently for each type of election as I am not a member of any political organisation or party. Since the vast majority of voters also do not belong to a party I think they may also do the same.
I also definitely know that Independents are not "Conservatives under another name" as I stood as an independent candidate in 2008. If I was a closet Tory I would cast my vote for their candidates at elections in which I did not stand. I never have voted Tory, I have voted Plaid and Labour though.
I entirely agree that the Conservatives are hoping that fewer Labour MPs are returned to Westminster from Wales. This is a rational political party response to the situation they find themselves in where they have to govern with the support of the Liberals. They have a golden opportunity to load the dice in their favour. Labour or Plaid would do exactly the same thing in this position, in my view.
It is high time that people began to vote in the numbers that I remember as a child. Then, and only then, will we get political representation that reflects the wishes of the people that live in a constituency rather than a fraction of those eligible to vote deciding which politician represents them. The voters had a once in a lifetime chance to change the voting system that would have broken the mould last year. The 'Alternative Vote' is not perfect but just may have made voting more attractive to the half of the electorate that do not cast their vote. This chance was dashed and I do not expect a change to a fairer system in my lifetime. Political parties are entirely content with first past the post so long as they have a realistic chance of getting into power every now and again.
For the record, I think a general election where Caerffili was joined with Cardiff North would result in a landslide for Wayne David.
No it wouldnt result ina landslide for Wayne David, ask any one from the main parties in the Borough and they will tell you the bulk of the Labour vote comes from north of Pwllypant. Caerphilly town has changed beyond recognition since I was a boy and is now a commuter town for Cardiff, as a result of the new housing estates built in the last forty years. One thing the demographers have picked up is that move people out of their community and give them a new house and their voting pattern changes. Voting Labour is associated with terraced housing and manual labour, people who live in a semi and work in an office tend to vote Conservative. Thus coupled with the massive Conservative vote in north Cardiff Labour would be lucky to come second and Plaid would lose their deposit, gerrymandering or what?.
I am not convinced by Ron James' argument that terraced house means Labour, semi in Hendredenny or Castle View equals Tory. It seems that this view harks back to the days before I was born, and I am in my 50's!
I still believe Wayne David would win easily, he is a hard working MP who shows a willingness to work with his constituents, whether they are overt supporters or not. Jonathan Evans, or whoever the Conservatives select, will lose badly. I do agree that Plaid Cymru will likely lose their deposit, their share of the vote has been declining for many years and this will continue unless Leanne Wood can revive their fortunes somewhat.
I also agree that the Conservatives hope that the boundary change will be of net benefit to their share of the Westminster seats. This is because there will be fewer Welsh MP's, not because of the result in Caerffili/Cardiff North. The existing Cardiff North seat is a Tory marginal and Labour would have targeted this seat as winnable, even if the boundaries remain as they are.
This is an exercise in gerrymandering but fewer Welsh seats are inevitable due to changes in the way the UK is governed. Many English people are in favour of cutting the mooring lines that hold Wales and Scotland to the UK. Rightly or wrongly they see this as beneficial to England, they have had the coal, oil and gas and feel that they would be better off without us.