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Wales’ political map is set to be redrawn as part of plans to expand the Senedd ahead of the 2026 election.
Currently, Wales is split into 40 constituencies for Senedd elections, but this is set to change in line with the new boundaries used at the recent UK general election.
The general election held earlier this month saw the number of seats in Wales reduced by eight to 32.
These 32 constituencies will be used at the next Senedd election. However, each of these 32 will be paired with a neighbouring seat to create 16 ‘mega’ constituencies – each electing six Senedd Members.
The changes would also see the five Senedd regions, which each contribute four members elected using the D’Hondt formula, scrapped.
Under the new system, the Senedd would have 96 Senedd Members, who would all be elected using the D’Hondt formula. The first-past-the-post system currently used to elect constituency MSs would be scrapped.
How would the D’Hondt formula work?
The D’Hondt method is used in many countries across the globe, including Belgium, Brazil, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Israel, Japan, Netherlands, Poland, Spain, Switzerland, Turkey and many more. It is also used in European Union elections.
The method would see all parties submit a list of candidates in each constituency, ranked in order. The system is designed to give more representation to parties who wouldn’t otherwise be elected through the first past the post system.
The party with the highest total of votes would have its highest ranking candidate elected as a Senedd Member. That party then has their number of votes divided by the number of seats they have already won in that constituency.
The total votes cast for each party in the constituency is divided, first by one, then by two, then three, up to the total number of seats to be allocated for the constituency, which is six.
Whichever party is top after this then gets their highest ranking candidate elected. The process would be carried out again and again until six Senedd Members are elected.
Under this system, it would be highly unlikely that any one party would be able to win all six vacancies in any given constituency. It would likely be split between representatives from multiple parties.
The changes come as part of reforms agreed under the Senedd Cymru (Members and Elections) Act 2024.
The Democracy and Boundary Commission Cymru will be responsible for pairing the new constituencies.
On Friday July 19, the commission published its guide to the review, which sets out key dates and explains how the new boundaries will be determined.
Initial proposals for which seats will be paired will be published on September 3, when a four-week consultation period begins.
Revised proposals will follow in December, with a second four-week consultation running into mid-January.
The commission’s final decisions are likely to be published in March 2025, and will take effect automatically at the next Senedd election the following year.
What is the criteria for pairing constituencies?
The 16 constituencies proposed by the commission must be formed by pairing Wales’ 32 parliamentary constituencies. Each paired constituency must be neighbouring.
The commission has said it will take geography, such as mountains, rivers and estuaries, as well as direct road links, into account.
It will also consider local government boundaries when making its decisions.
However, the commission has said constituencies which border each other on a map, but between which it is impossible to travel without passing through a third constituency, are not considered to be neighbouring – and therefore won’t be paired together.
Public feedback
The commission’s chief executive, Shereen Williams MBE OStJ, has encouraged the public to engage with the process.
Ms Williams said: “Public feedback is central to our work so we look forward to seeing responses from all parts of Wales on not only the pairing exercise for the new constituencies, but for their proposed names also.
“We would encourage everyone to find out more about the review before we publish our initial proposals by heading to dbcc.gov.wales and reading our guide to the review.”
‘Unequal’
When the then-bill was debated in the Senedd, concerns were raised about the potential size of some of the 16 “mega-constituencies”.
Mike Hedges pointed out that the Brecon, Radnor and Cwmtawe constituency used in the general election, already stretches from the English border to the edge of Carmarthenshire.
The Labour MS said: “Whichever way of creating a six-member constituency, the constituency would be very large and involve communities with very little things in common.
“Whilst this is the most extreme example, there will be many others outside the cities that will also be covering very large areas.”
Meanwhile, Darren Millar was concerned about the potential for an unequal number of voters between the new constituencies.
The Conservative warned that any constituency twinned with Ynys Môn could have as many as 25,000 fewer voters in future, effectively giving some people more say.
After the 2026 election, the commission will hold a full review ahead of the 2030 poll to address issues such as increasing the parity of representation.
The last full review was held 17 years ago ahead of the 2007 election to the then-National Assembly for Wales.
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