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Peredur Owen Griffiths, who represents Plaid Cymru, is one of four regional Senedd Members serving the South Wales East region.

It is becoming clear that next month’s by-election in Caerphilly is a choice between Plaid Cymru or Reform. Although they held the seat election-after-election until the tragic death of my Senedd colleague Hefin David, recent polls are showing that Labour’s vote is collapsing at an unprecedented rate.

After a century of electoral dominance, the patience of the electorate in Wales is finally running out. Even Labour Party stalwarts like the (until very recently) Leader of Caerphilly County Borough Council, Sean Morgan, are leaving to back Plaid Cymru. 

The polling data certainly chimes with the response I have received during street surgery sessions over the last year – and more recently on the campaign trail in the Caerphilly constituency. The withdrawal of the winter fuel allowance for some pensioners and the failure to come good on the pension promises for 1950s-born women, have done a lot of damage to Labour’s credibility.

Labour’s promise of change has been thoroughly undermined by their own making. The weak response of the Westminster Government towards a genocide in Gaza has also alienated many loyal supporters. In communities that were once strongholds for Labour, the vitriol towards them cannot be underestimated.

In winning a large – but hollow – majority, Starmer has since vastly overplayed the hand he was dealt by cutting more than the Tories would have dared. He has helped to increase discontent among people who had voted for change at the 2024 General Election. This has helped to fuel the Reform surge in the polls.

Make no mistake, there is much discontent out there among people who are fed up with the deterioration in public services, increases in poverty and the cost-of-living crisis. The poverty rates in Wales also show no sign of abatement – the statistic that a third of children in Wales are living in poverty remains a national shame.

But Wales, or anywhere else, does not need Reform – they will not provide the answers or solutions to the everyday problems we face in our communities. In reality, they will only make things worse. For example, Farage is well-documented as favouring the abolition of the NHS in favour of an insurance-style model similar to America’s where the many have-nots go without basic healthcare and medicines.

Thankfully, Plaid Cymru remain at the top of the opinion polls in Wales. We have consolidated the support we have taken off Labour and do not seem to have lost voters to Reform.

This is remarkable given the almost blanket coverage of Farage and Reform over the summer across the tabloids and indeed across the main network news programmes. Little of that coverage has provided serious scrutiny.

It was a shame that he had to travel to America for a congressional hearing to receive the kind of probing questions he should have routinely had from the UK media. I imagine Farage will be more reluctant to accept the invite to participate in a congressional hearing in future given his penchant for banning journalists armed with searching questions.

For Plaid Cymru to retain a lead in the polls in such circumstances is therefore heartening.  

It is in these circumstances we lead into the Caerphilly by-election. It is a by-election where Reform has a chance of winning so we are calling on all progressives and everyone that is concerned by the politics of division they peddle, to unite under a Plaid Cymru banner to repel the threat they pose.

The Caerphilly by-election provides a barometer for next year’s Senedd elections given that the constituency is representative of many ‘valleys’ seats. It is also providing an early snapshot of the new political reality in Wales which presents a choice between progression with Plaid Cymru or regression with Reform.

Standing for Reform, you have someone who was a committed Tory until this year. He also worked for the disgraced former Reform Wales leader Nathan Gill who pleaded guilty in the last month to eight counts of bribery relating to pro-Russia statements made in European parliament and articles.

On the other hand, for Plaid Cymru you have a committed community champion. The response to Lindsay Whittle on the doorstep has been encouraging but not surprising – when you are campaigning for a candidate with decades of experience of fighting for communities, it is a positive message that we take onto the doorsteps.

When you combine Lindsay’s personal vote with the uplifting central message from Plaid Cymru of standing up for Wales and developing policies that will deliver real, positive change for our communities, then the offer to the people of the Caerphilly constituency is a powerful and compelling one.

There is a lot at stake on October 23 in the Caerphilly by-election. We may not find out immediately just how crucial and pivotal this vote will be for the constituency and our nation.

I hope the people of Caerphilly turn away from a future plagued by division and increased inequality. In Plaid Cymru and Lindsay Whittle, we can opt for a more positive, brighter future that will still deliver on the change that people are craving.  

Caerphilly’s by-election candidates for October 23

• Welsh Liberal Democrats – Steve Aicheler
• Gwlad – Anthony Cook
• Wales Green Party – Gareth Hughes
• Welsh Conservatives – Gareth Potter
• Reform UK – Llŷr Powell
• UKIP – Roger Quilliam
• Richard Tunnicliffe – Labour
• Lindsay Whittle – Plaid Cymru