Could policing reforms see a single Welsh force created?

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Proposals to overhaul policing and create larger forces has led to speculation a single Welsh force could be formed. 

Little details have been given about how the current 43 forces across England and Wales could be reorganised, following the UK Government’s intention to create a national police service to tackle organised crime, and a review to decide the right number of forces. 

The clear intention of moving to fewer police forces means Gwent Police is unlikely to survive as a standalone force. It has just over 1,500 officers, making it one of the smaller forces – and the figure is less than half the 3,511 working for neighbouring South Wales Police. 

Previous plans to reorganise policing has led to speculation Wales’ four forces could be merged to create one single service, a move already made in Scotland. 

The country’s eight forces were merged in 2013 to create Police Scotland, which was a decision of the Scottish Government with policing having long been devolved. 

Touted as a way to save money Police Scotland said, in 2024, the move had saved around £200 million a year – but arguments persist over how that saving has been used. The police consider it to have been banked by the Scottish Government rather than reinvested in the service. 

Comparisons with Scotland, which prior to its reorganisation had double the number of Welsh forces and is a much larger country in terms of population and geography, are difficult. 

Police Scotland, as of September last year, had 16,441 full-time equivalent officers. Figures from March 2025 show the total number of officers employed by the four Welsh forces stood at 8,087 – which is just under half those on the beat north of Hadrian’s Wall.

Since the creation of Police Scotland, the organisation has 900 fewer officers and around 700 fewer staff. Savings among civilian staff and senior officers have been put forward as arguments in favour of reform. 

Policing in Wales remains the responsibility of the UK Government and home secretary Shabana Mahmood ruled out handing powers to the Welsh Government only when questioned as she outlined her reform plans. 

In reply to Plaid Cymru’s Liz Saville-Roberts, Ms Mahmood said “No I do not” when asked if she agreed the reforms are “exactly the right time to devolve policing to Wales”. 

That is despite devolution of policing being a long-standing aim of the Welsh Labour Government and First Minister Eluned Morgan having called for it only last week. 

Ms Mahmood did however say the Welsh Government, and local councils, would be involved in talks over a replacement for police and crime commissioners, who currently provide local oversight of policing. 

Creating a single Welsh force could be seen as further strengthening the case for devolution of policing powers, which proponents say would align with existing Welsh Government responsibilities for health and community safety. However that isn’t supported by the UK Government or apparently many Welsh Labour MPs. 

Arrangements for the police to work alongside public services that the Welsh Government, and local authorities, are responsible for – such as addressing mental health, substance misuse, violence against women and girls, and anti-racism – are already in place. 

In Scotland creating a single force has been credited with improving how rape and murder are dealt with but the merger was also fraught with difficulties in its early years over finances, IT, and crucially leadership.  

Ms Mahmood acknowledged both points when questioned in the Commons, but said the UK Government intended phasing in changes over a longer period, having considered the Scottish experience. 

A 2024 report, for the Welsh Government, on devolution of policing noted Welsh police and crime commissioners haven’t been subject to the same constraints on their tax raising precept powers as their counterparts in England – which has resulted in police officer numbers remaining comparatively higher in Wales, as have the precepts that are added to council tax bills. 

This has resulted in the majority of funding for policing in Wales coming from the people of Wales rather than central grants. Funding for neighbourhood policing has since been boosted by the UK Government. 

That same report also noted concerns a single larger force could present problems around local accountability, and moving to a one force model could result in short to medium term disruption for the police and communities.  

Similar problems were experienced in Scotland where the national force was at first seen as too heavily influenced by the leadership, and culture, of what had been its largest force in Strathclyde. 

A number of responses to the 2024 report favoured a single force, owing to opportunities to share services such as IT and human resources, as well as reducing duplication and promoting a consistent approach to systems and standards across Wales. Some also considered a single force would make a new approach to policing easier to implement than doing so across four forces, if policing was devolved.

Concerns were also raised over the pace of change, and whether devolution of policing and a reform of how the service is delivered, should take place at the same time.