The latest headline figure released by Public Health Wales (PHW) shows 15 new cases of coronavirus in Caerphilly County Borough.
The headline figure, which was released on Thursday (October 1), shows how many new coronavirus cases PHW was made aware of on Wednesday (September 30).
The latest figures show 398 new confirmed cases across Wales – with six deaths.
Caerphilly was the first council area in Wales to be placed under a local lockdown by Welsh Government on September 8. Since then, ten more local authority areas and one town have been placed under local lockdown restrictions.
Restrictions will also come into force in Conwy, Denbighshire, Flintshire and Wrexham from 6pm today (October 1).
However, the rate of infection in Caerphilly has slowed considerably in the weeks since the local lockdown was imposed.
Between September 22 and September 28, 91 new coronavirus cases have been recorded in the borough. This equates to 50.3 cases per 100,000 people.
The week running from September 7 to September 13, in which the local lockdown came into force in Caerphilly, the incidence rate was 119.3 – more than double what it is currently.
Dr Robin Howe, incident director at PHW, said: “Following the introduction of restrictions in the borough of Caerphilly, our data is beginning to show a downward trend.
“Although we cannot categorically say this trend is a result of lockdown, we are cautiously optimistic and we are looking at a number of alternative sources to validate these results.”
How does the incidence rate compare with other areas in lockdown?
The number of cases per 100,000 people in each local authority area currently in lockdown, over the last seven days, are as follows:
Blaenau Gwent – 246.2
Merthyr Tydfil – 208.9
Rhondda Cynon Taf – 178.2
Bridgend – 108.8
Cardiff – 101.1
Swansea – 94.3
Carmarthenshire – 66.2*
Newport – 62.1
Wrexham – 59.6
Torfaen – 56.4
Flintshire – 55.7
Neath Port Talbot – 54.4
Conwy – 52
CAERPHILLY – 51.4
Vale of Glamorgan – 47.2
Denbighshire – 43.9
*While Carmarthenshire is not under a local lockdown, the town of Llanelli, which is part of Carmarthenshire, has been been under local lockdown restrictions since September 26.
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What does ‘headline figure’ mean?
In recent weeks, Caerphilly Observer and other media have been reporting the headline figures from Public Health Wales.
For example, the headline figure released on Thursday, October 1 saw 11 new positive tests reported.
This figure however is not entirely as it seems at first glance. It is the number of new cases PHW were aware of as of September 30 – the day before.
Even then, this figure is still not what you think it ought to be as it includes positive tests that may have occurred a few days prior, but that PHW were only made aware of on September 30.
The headline figure for Caerphilly County Borough for September 30 (which was published on October 1) is 15 new cases.
The latest spreadsheet containing the detailed data, which can be downloaded from the PHW stats website, actually shows no new cases for September 30.
This is because the 15 cases were actually tested for a few days prior, but PHW only became aware of them on September 30. We will have a far more accurate reflection of what has been going on in the last few days over the course of the next week.
However, the figures do show the week up to September 27 saw 97 new coronavirus cases recorded in Caerphilly County Borough.
The previous week (September 14 to 20) saw 122 new cases. The week before (September 7 to 13) saw 216 new cases.
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